Repository | Book | Chapter
(1974) Developments in the methodology of social science, Dordrecht, Springer.
A typology of long-range forecasting exercises is developed, with facts and values as one dimension where forecast subject matter can be located, description and prescription as a second dimension where the function of the exercise can be located, and expertise of the forecaster as a third dimension. Three questions are addressed. Are experts desirable in long-range descriptive and prescriptive value forecasting? Are experts necessary for descriptive value forecasting? Are experts sufficient for prescriptive value forecasting? We suggest that the use of experts in long-range value forecasting exercises is of questionable desirability on analytical grounds, is unnecessary in light of a series of comparative empirical studies, and on social psychological theoretical grounds may well be insufficient as well.
Publication details
DOI: 10.1007/978-94-010-2259-0_12
Full citation:
Welty, G. (1974)., The necessity, sufficiency and desirability of experts as value forecasters, in W. Leinfellner & E. Köhler (eds.), Developments in the methodology of social science, Dordrecht, Springer, pp. 363-379.
This document is unfortunately not available for download at the moment.